55. EU must choose ‘quick and dirty’ way to federate by 2025

The process of transforming the EU into the European Federation may take three broad routes:

Tony Czarnecki: ‘Democracy for a Human Federation’, London 2020
  1. Quite sudden, unprepared transition to a rudimentary federation, when only the most necessary functions would be federated, such as defence, security, foreign affairs and the budget, while the remaining ones will be in a state of limbo or chaos.
  2. Making a transition in an orderly fashion, carried out in small steps, partly under disguise but ultimately leading to the implementation of an entirely new system of governance within the European Federation, when most of the current member states would join in.
  3. European Union collapses. The longer the federalization is put off the higher the risk that it may not happen at all, and the EU collapses or shrinks to a relatively small federated state. Should such an unexpected very serious event happen, the EU might be completely dissolved. 

Since the EU can no longer procrastinate its decision to federate because of exiternal and internal pressure, it has to concede that the most pragmatic way is to do it in a ‘quick and dirty’ way, following 80/20 rule. That means that the Federation will be far from perfect on the day of inauguration and it will be going through the process of adjustment while already in operation. That will be the safest route for the EU and for the best hope for the World.

Before COVID-19 pandemic it seemed reasonable for the EU federation latest date to be 2030. However, the exponential pace of change makes it highly dangerous and therefore in 2021, the latest date for the EF federalisation seems to be 2025.